When should I expect a BFP?
It's already 13 DPO and I still haven't gotten a positive pregnancy
test. Should I assume I am out for this cycle?
This is one of the most popular questions I get asked - when can I
expect a positive pregnancy test? Here are the stats from various
sources on the interweb I've found:
HPT accuracy by DPO:
10 dpo : 35%
11 dpo : 51%
12 dpo : 62%
13 dpo : 68%
14 dpo : 74%
15 dpo : 80%
16 dpo : 88%
17 dpo : 92%
18 dpo : 99%
Does that seem lower than you expected? You aren't alone. Why
else would we be whipping out our peesticks at 6 DPO? It's because
we think a BFP at 6 DPO is possible, and a BFP by 10 DPO is the
norm. This expectation has been created by the culture of the online
ttc community, and I am certainly guilty for being part of that. Yes, I
am a classic peestick pusher. I just gotta know the second it is
possible to know. In reality, though, even with sensitive tests a BFP
is unlikely until you near your missed period.
Aside from the fact that on message boards, people are more likely
to post and make a big deal over an early BFP than a late one --
there is also the human error factor to consider. I don't want to offend
any of my beloved citizens of Peestick Paradise, but sometimes
those super early BFPs are actually not BFPs at all... they are errors,
evaps, or sometimes even just a case of looking to hard and seeing
the reagent strip. Then a few days later, they get a real BFP. Of
course, they think they got their BFP at 6 DPO... but in reality, they
didn't get a real line until 12 DPO.
The above stats are confirmed with other sources of data. Fertility
Friend has an excellent page on this. You'll see that according the
Fertility Friend's data, the average first BFP is 13.6 DPO, and the
average first "false positive" is 10.6 DPO. This tells me that people
are testing early, but the average is still close to 14 DPO. This
means that a lot of women aren't getting that first BFP until after 14
DPO. So I think the above stats are likely correct.
So this was my long-winded way of saying... don't give up. Don't give
up at 13 DPO, or 14 DPO, or even 15 DPO. It ain't over until AF
crashes your peestick party.
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